International MSME Consultant - Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 in TimorLeste, Round 2

Background

COVID-19 is a global pandemic requiring varying degrees of countermeasures to prevent the further spread of the virus. As the United Nations highlights, the pandemic poses risks 'by directly reversing the hard gains made by countries toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and impacting severely the existing infrastructure and services.l

The first positive case of COVID-19 emerged in Timor-Leste on 21 March 2020. A week later, the National Parliament of Timor-Leste authorized the President to declare a State of Emergency (SOE) in response to the threat of COVID-19 in the country. The SoE has been extended to cover four 30-day periods, between 27 March and 4 September 2020 (with the period from 26 June to 6 August not included).

Accordingly, the Government of Timor-Leste (GOTL) imposed various measures such as domestic and international travel restrictions, closure of schools and physical distancing.2 The SoE started easing as shops and restaurants were allowed to open provided physical distancing and hygiene measures were enforced from 28 May, 2020 because Timor-Leste had recorded no new cases since April. These types of restrictions affected vulnerable households, communities and micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) severely, especially in remote areas.

1. United Nations. June 2020. Brief #2: Putting the UN Framework for Socio-Economic Response to COVID-19 Into Action: Insights, p.3
2. Government Decree No. 3/2020 of 28 March - Implementing Measures of the Declaration of the State of Emergency Made by the Decree of the President of the Republic no 29/2020, of March 27.

For this reason, the UN Timor-Leste with technical lead from UNDP, conducted a rapid Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) between April and August 2020. The aim of the SEIA 1.0 was to gather objective evidence about the impacts of COVID-19 measures on citizens and MSMEs of Timor-Leste. The SEIA measured changes in livelihood, employment, food security, health care, education and other basic services, including social protection and gender equality for individuals, as well as shifts in supply, demand, income and employment for MSMEs. The SEIA results were disseminated among policy makers, development partners and civil society and was informative for the economic recovery plan of the country.

However, stakeholders expressed the desire and need to have a nationally representative data that can be disaggregated by various indicators. Given the effects of the COVID-19 crisis can be time-lagged, the UN decided to conduct a nationwide SEIA in 2021 (SEIA 2.0) in partnership with Coordinating Ministry of Economic Affairs (MCAE), General Directorate of Statistics (GDS) under the Ministry of Finance and other relevant government agencies.

As an integral part of the SEIA 2.0 will be to better understand the impact of the pandemic on MSMEs and assess effectiveness of Cesta Basica and other rapid response measures of the Short-term Economic Recovery plna. UNDP is seeking to recruit an individual consultant to provide methodological and technical lead for the MSME survey between March and August 2021.

Duties and Responsibilities

The consultant will work closely with the SEIA 2.0 Team Leader, UNDP CO Team under the overall supervision of the UNDP Resident Representative and the direct supervision of UNDP Deputy Resident Representative. The consultant will also work in close collaboration with other UN agencies, MCAE and other government institutions as well as private sector.

The scope of work for this assignment will be largely around the following key functions:

Conduct desk review of Government's measures (economic stimulus package, food basket program and other relevant measures) in Timor-Leste with respect to MSMEs, job protection and creation, and youth employment promotion;

Review and develop the methodology (both the quantitative and qualitative and survey sampling strategy) of the MSME survey building on desk review results and lessons learned from SEIA 1.0 and through close consultations with SEIA team and MCAE and other relevant stakeholders; Develop survey tools, training manual and finalize survey tools and manual;

Provide technical guidance on methodology for the training of interviewers;

To take a lead in data analysis, drafting and finalizing the final report and policy brief and to quality assure the results;

Carry out comparative analysis of support systems and schemes available at the international levels, in response and recovering plans (post Covid-19);

Participate in regular/weekly SEIA and MCAE meetings, support and work as part of the team, liaise with other relevant stakeholders;

Consult with Team Leader to develop breakdown of tasks for the staff involved in MSME survey including interviewers and other support staff.

Task 1: SEIA 2.0 (MSME survey) preparation phase

Conduct desk review and prepare a methodology note with tentative plan and schedule to carry out the tasks, plan for secondary and primary data collection, and expected conclusions and recommendations of the report.

Update and review MSME survey conceptual framework and tools based on stakeholders' feedback, consultation with UNDP, UN agencies and MCAE as well as desk review findings. o Develop the MSME survey sampling plan in partnership with the SEIA sampling specialist. The sampling plan should ensure representation of key sectors, types of MSMEs and should consider including businesses that are closed.

Provide inputs to developing the SEIA 2.0 MSME survey detailed plan, budget and TORS for team members.

Task 2: Data collection phase

Technical overview for the training methodology and content for supervisors and enumerators Review the survey tools based on pilot results

Conduct key-informant interviews with key stakeholders.

Task 3: Data quality control and analysis

Carry out content check of data collected

Develop data tabulation plan

Based on primary and secondary data, conduct data analysis for MSME survey and compare findings.

Task 4: Report development phase

Prepare PowerPoint presentation and present the draft report with findings and recommendations to UNDP, MCAE and other key stakeholders for validation

Finalize MSME report based on feedback and inputs from UNDP, MCAE and other stakeholders. Develop recommendations:

Future economic measures to support MSME and options to improve Cesta Basica program; o Identify particular barriers faced by women entrepreneurs, youth and other vulnerable groups and specific policy measures that will enable women, youth and other vulnerable groups to manage thriving MSMEs, including policies relating to access to finance, business training and other forms of support; o Identify opportunities for digitization and other innovative options for better economic recovery;

Task 5: Dissemination and follow-up activities phase

• Develop a policy brief on MSME develop short- and medium-term recovery measures specific to the key sectors in Timor-Leste and in addressing the impact of COVID19 and preparing for recovery, ensuring inclusive growth of the economy.

E. EXPECTED OUTPUTS AND DELIVERABLES

1. Inception Report: updated survey methodology (including the sampling plan, digital questionnaires, interview guidance and workplan) agreed with UNDP and MCAE.
2. Draft MSME survey report and dataset: including key findings and recommendations and final clean dataset and interview transcriptions (draft report should include impact of Short-term Economic Recovery measures on business conditions, sale and revenues, labour and employment, etc.).
3. Final report and PPT slides: incorporating feedback from UNDP and other stakeholders.
4. Policy brief on MSME: develop short- and medium-term recovery measures, specific to the key sectors in Timor-Leste in addressing the impact of COVID19 and preparing for recovery.

Competencies

• Evidence of experience working on MSME development and/or private sector development, in developing countries, ideally in the Pacific and preferably in Timor-Leste.
• Evidence of excellent analytical, writing and interpersonal skills demonstrated through development of similar policies and from referee feedback.
• Practical expertise in designing and field -testing surveys and other data collection instruments supported with experience in managing data collection, monitoring and evaluation.
• Ability to communicate effectively orally and in writing, prepare high quality reports, make impactful presentations, design and deliver audience-focused trainings.

Required Skills and Experience

• Advanced University degree in business development, economics, sociology, public policy or other relevant social sciences. Areas of specialized expertise could include SME support, micro-economics, private sector policy, gender economics, rural development and labor market.
• A minimum of 8 years' experience working on development projects and programs focusing on SME and/or private sector development policy, including strong understanding of current best practices in SME support

Details of the ToR and other required form to be submit such as, P11 form, PSU_ Individual Contract Offerors Letter to UNDP Confirming Interest and Availability, IC Terms of References, can be downloaded from this link: https://procurement-notices.undp.org/view_notice.cfm?notice_id=75808

 Application deadline before 15:30 New York Time, 9 March 2021. Any request for clarification must be sent in writing, or by standard electronic email communication to procurement.staff.tp@undp.org